Duke at Miami (FL) Preview

Saying that it has been an unpredictable season in the ACC thus far is an understatement. When Duke travels to Miami to take on the Hurricanes (Sunday 5:30 PM), it will be a matchup of two teams that illustrate this well. Duke is coming off back to back losses to open its ACC schedule, the first time Coach K's teams have done that since 1993. Miami, meanwhile, has had played three contests in the league, with wildly different results. Hosting Georgia Tech in the ACC opener, Miami ran with the Yellow Jackets and came away with an eight point victory, 90-82. They then began the new year with a one point loss in a low scoring game at Wake Forest, a matchup that paired two teams predicted to be at the bottom of the ACC. Miami then won at Maryland, holding the Terrapins to just 22% shooting.

Despite two quality ACC wins, Miami sits at just 9-8, and it is a tale of which team will show up for coach Frank Haith. One thing that stands out, differentiating their wins and losses, is rebounding. In seven of its nine wins, Miami has had an offensive rebounding percentage greater than 40%; in seven of its eight losses, the percentage has been less than 40%. On the defensive end, they've allowed superior offensive rebounding in all their losses, except a Northwestern team that shot 60% from the field to knock off the Hurricanes. Overall, Miami is ranked 57th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, one of their greatest strengths. Another strength is holding onto the ball, as they are 30th in the nation with just 8% of their possessions ending in steals.

Miami is led by go-to junior guard Jack McClinton, who takes a high percentage of Miami's shots. Brian Asbury, a 6-7 sophomore forward is a strong force, garnering an impressive offensive rating of 112. Freshman Duane Collins is a force on the boards, grabbing 12.1% of offenisve rebound opportunities. As a team, they are neither effective nor prolific from beyond the arc, and are average at both getting to the free throw line and in free throw percentage.

This is, on paper, a good matchup for a Duke team looking to get back on its feet after two demoralizing losses. Duke is taller, more physical, and better statistically on offense and on defense. Miami likes to play a similar tempo to Duke, and look for Greg Paulus to bounce back from terrible games against the Techs. If Miami is to have a chance, they need to crash the boards like they have in their wins over Georgia Tech and Maryland, making up for poor shooting with many second chances. McClinton may also have a chance to exceed his 17.7 scoring average against the less agile Duke guards. If, however, Duke is able to grab rebounds on both ends of the court, and Jon Scheyer is able to shut down McClinton, Duke should roll to its first ACC win. Duke, 70-55.