The Anti-Cookie

If there were such a thing as an anti-cookie, Dan Uggla has earned it. With a chance to highlight the Marlins' surprising season on national TV, Uggla entered the All-Star game in the bottom of the sixth as a defensive replacement. His night:

Bottom sixth: Caught pop-up off bat of Joe Crede for the second out.
Top eighth: Struck out swinging with go-ahead runner on first.
Top tenth: With two on and one out, grounded into a 4-6-3 double play
Bottom tenth: Botches an easy grounder to allow Michael Young to reach leading off
Bottom tenth: Next batter, Carlos Quentin, also hits one to Uggla, and it bounces off his chest for another error.
Bottom tenth: The very next batter hits another one to Uggla, and with the bases loaded Uggla takes his sweet time throwing home, allowing Sizemore to reach base, re-loading the bases.
Top twelfth: Uggla strikes out looking on three pitches, including getting frozen on a 67-mph curveball from Joakim Soria.
Bottom twelfth: Uggla manages to not screw up, getting Grady Sizemore on a ground out despite not catching the ball cleanly.
Bottom thirteenth: J.D. Drew reaches on Uggla's third fielding error, which sets an All-Star game record.
Top fifteenth: Uggla manages to get to four pitches this time but strikes out on a 93-mph fastball from Scott Kazmir.

So, Uggla had five ground balls hit to him, and he fielded none of them cleanly. He batted four times and failed miserably each time. Sure, none of the errors actually resulted in runs for the AL and the NL managed to score runs in two of the innings where Uggla batted. Still, for such an epic breakdown on a national stage, we shall reward him with the first ever Food Lion Anti-Cookie (Definitely Not Sponsored by Food Lion). If I could follow him around all day giving him the sarcastic slow-clap, I would.

Also, to the National League: thanks for playing. Your inferiority is unparalleled.

Calendar Year All-Stars, Part II (AL)

Here is the continuation on the Calendar Year All-Stars, those players chosen for the All-Star game based not upon a small sample (the first few months) but on the larger sample of July 2007-present. Under discussion today: the outfielders and pitchers of the American League.

Outfield
Leading vote getters: Manny Ramirez (.291/.379/.516), Josh Hamilton (.310/.355/.572), Ichiro Suzuki (.285/.346/.365)
Runs Created Leaders: Grady Sizemore (59), Hamilton (59), Carlos Quentin (58)

Ichiro is clearly one of those Perennial All-Stars getting his votes bumped because of the rabid fan base in Japan, voting for him despite ranking 11th in the AL in Runs Created. Hamilton is an easy pick for most people because its the combination of MVP-type numbers and an amazing comeback story. Sizemore and Quentin are having good first halves, but how do they compare to the top outfielders since July 2007?

Manny Ramirez (.293/.380/.509, 568 PA)
Josh Hamilton (.315/.364/.584, 481 PA)
Ichiro Suzuki (.317/.365/.386, 758 PA)
Grady Sizemore (.269/.379/.483, 746 PA)
Carlos Quentin (.272/.376/.492, 372 PA)
Johnny Damon (.303/.374/.452, 663 PA)
Magglio Ordonez (.328/.397/.526, 683 PA)
Vladamir Guerrero (.307/.367/.517, 635 PA)
Nick Markakis (.304/.388/.502, 712 PA)

This is certainly one of the deepest positions. Despite the injury that cut short Hamilton's 2007, he still ranks up there among the best choices for the All-Star game. No one's slugging percentage is remotely close. Manny Being Manny is a solid choice as allways, but its tough to count out the performances of both Magglio Ordonez and Vladamir Guerrero. I think Mags has got to be in, and the tough decision between ManRam and Vlad will have to be left unto some sort of random number generator. Still, this is one of the votes that is closer to the Calendar Year All-Stars than the Small Sample All-Stars, although I'm certain both Sizemore and Quentin will be selected for the reserves.

All that said, let me throw out there one intriguing possibility:

Milton Bradley (.323/.437/.611) has the highest OPS of any American League regular over the past 365 days. He's currently the Rangers' DH and played in the NL last season, but he is listed on the roster as an outfielder. I think, despite the low number of plate appearances (442), he has to get some consideration over his teammate Hamilton. Just because one guy is a recovering coke addict who has found Jesus and the other one throws tantrums on the field shouldn't influence your vote (assuming your vote is based on statistics...).

Designated Hitter
Leading Vote Getter: David Ortiz (.252/.354/486, 37 RC)
Leading Runs Created: Milton Bradley (54), Hideki Matsui (47, .323/.404/.458)

We've dealt with Bradley already, and Matsui is leading DHs in 2008, with Ortiz having a down year and some inuries. Still, he has reached Derek Jeter territory in fan voting, and it would take a few seasons of absolute wretched hitting for the voters not to make him the starter. From the last year:

David Ortiz (.305/.414/.585, 609 PA)
Hideki Matsui (.302/.384/.486, 659 PA)
Aubrey Huff (.279/.352/.495, 633 PA)
Jim Thome (.257/.376/.536, 623 PA)

All right, it's not even close, it's Ortiz.

Pitchers
There is no vote for pitchers and I think its a shame. I don't think it would be too much to ask of MLB to come up with a list of their nine starting pitchers to be included on the roster, and then let the fans spend two weeks voting for the starter. It would be a large undertaking to try and fill the whole roster, so let's just try and figure out who should start the game based on the last years' statistics.

Strange times are afoot in the pitching ranks. With stalwarts like Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Johan Santana, and David Wells out of the league and even baseball, it's the young guns that have to fill the void. Of course, the two stats that carry the most weight for managers selecting the All-Star pitching staffs are ERA and Wins, and both statistics have their flaws. The Hardball Times tracks Pitching Runs Created, and here are the 2008 leaders:

Roy Halladay (57; 3.12 ERA)
Shaun Marcum (57; 2.65 ERA)
Cliff Lee (55; 2.45 ERA)
Felix Hernandez (53; 2.83 ERA)
Ervin Santana (51; 3.32 ERA)
Mariano Rivera (50; 0.76 ERA)
Zack Greinke (50; 3.40 ERA)

First of all, I want to note how incredible it is that a relief pitcher is in the top six pitchers in the AL; Rivera has been simply brilliant. That said, let's look at how some top pitchers have performed over the last 365 days. I'm going to have to use ERA because that's what's available, but walks and strikeouts also give a clue to dominance.

Halladay (33 starts, 249.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 177 K, 49 BB)
Marcum (32 starts, 193.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 146 K, 52 BB)
Lee (20 starts, 135.1 IP, 3.92 ERA, 108 K, 30 BB)
Hernandez (35 starts, 235.1 IP, 3.40 ERA, 190 K, 72 BB)
Santana (27 starts, 167.2 IP, 4.56 ERA, 155 K, 54 BB)
Greinke (23 starts, 166.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 139 K, 51 BB)

And add in some of last year's best pitchers:

Sabathia (33 starts, 225 IP, 3.60 ERA, 208 K, 50 BB)
Beckett (30 starts, 203.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 212 K, 39 BB)
Lackey (25 starts, 178.2 IP, 2.57 ERA, 142K, 34 BB)
Matsuzaka (29 starts, 171 IP, 4.26 ERA, 155 K, 86 BB)

And the pitchers who will get consideration to start the game because of their win totals:
Mussina (31 starts, 176.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 100 K, 32 BB) 10 wins
Saunders (28 starts, 178 IP, 3.89 ERA, 104 K, 47 BB) 11 wins
Padilla (24 starts, 138.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 92 K, 52 BB) 10 wins

That's a lot of different stat lines to consider. But let me ask: with the game on the line, would you rather have a pitcher from group A, group B, or group C? The choices have to be down to Halladay and Sabathia, with the Doc getting the nod based on his superior control.

Relief Pitcher

I've already made my choice quite clear. Over the past 365 days, here's a stat line for you:
73 games, 79 IP, 1.71 ERA, 87 K, 10 BB (and 42 saves)

Here's another to consider... Joba Chamberlain, who probably won't get any mention for the game due to his hybrid role the past calendar year, but:

44 games, 72.2 IP, 1.49 ERA, 90 K, 30 BB

I'd take both of those lines over any of the following:

Putz: 56 games, 57 IP, 2.84 ERA, 69 K, 24 BB
Papelbon: 67 games, 65.2 IP, 2.06 ERA, 92 K, 11 BB
Nathan: 69 games, 72 IP, 1.38 ERA, 77 K, 16 BB
Street: 62 games, 66.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 80 K, 15 BB

Sure, Papelbon has more strikeouts and Nathan has a lower ERA. But neither of them is the Sandman.

Matt's AL All-Stars:
C Joe Mauer
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Derek Jeter
OF Milton Bradley
OF Josh Hamilton
OF Magglio Ordonez
SP Roy Halladay
CL Mariano Rivera

2007 MLB All-Stars: American League

I haven't been to a major league baseball game in a few years, so I haven't had the opportunity for a special fan delight: punching tiny holes in cardboard to mark out my All-Star Game selections. While many fans have become dismissive of the Summer Classic, I continue to watch the ASG year after year, and enjoy debating who "deserves" to start at each position. The debate is typically philosophical, centering on what one believes All-Star means. Is it the player who is the best active player at that position? Is it the player who has had the best first half of that particular season? Or is it simply, as the cynics call it, just a popularity contest.

In recent years its gone even beyond that last option, to the point where players for the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Dodgers dominate over the rest of the teams. The reason is simple- these teams have more fans, and more votes. In reality, most of the players having good seasons join the popular and top players on each leagues' roster (if as reserves), and "snubs" are forgotten by the third week of July.

Of the problems I have with the current method of selection: Curiously, the tradition of leaving the pitching staff selections up to the mangers/players continues; I believe the fans should at least decide the starting pitcher for each league. Further, the fact that no DH is selected for the American League when the game is in an NL park is absurd. None of the pitchers ever bat in an All-Star game anyway. Why not just give the AL a DH in the game? Does anyone really want to see David Ortiz try to field a baseball?

The following picks, for AL position players first, will also show for each postion the player leading the league in Runs Above Replacement Player (sorry Ozzie Smith, but I don't watch the ASG for defense), the player currently leading in voting (as of June 12), and the player I would most likely pick if I were sitting in the stand with no stats in front of me. Let's go!

AL Catcher
2007 RARP leader: Jorge Posada (25.0) has a modest edge over Victor Martinez (23.7) and no one else is close.
Current Votes: Pudge Rodriguez leads Jorge Posada by about 112,000 votes
Gut Pick: Jorge Posada. Come on, I'm a Yankees fan, and my team's 36 year old catcher is second in the AL with a .357 batting average. No brainer. I-Rod will probably win, despite worse stats in 2007.

AL First Base
2007 RARP leader: Mark Teixiera (22.1) with a slight lead over Carlos Pena (22.0).
Current Votes: David Ortiz has a commanding lead, with over one million votes, or half a million votes for every game he's actually played at 1B so far this season. Travis Halfner isn't much better, with 8 games played at 1B.
Gut Pick: Well, if we went under my version, I would vote for Ortiz as the DH rep (his OPS+ is, after all, 173), and probably Youkillis as the first baseman. As that's not really an option, I guess I'd have to go with Ortiz.

AL Second Base
2007 RARP leader: BJ Upton (22.4) has a commanding lead over other AL 2nd Basemen.
Current Votes: Placido Polanco (12.9) has recently surpassed Robinson Cano (1.9) and leads by 50,000 votes.
Gut Pick: I'd be tempted to take Cano, my new favorite Yankee. But he sucked for most of April and all of May, so I'd lean away from the homer pick here. If I was at a game in mid-May, I would have voted for Ian Kinsler, but for the moment he's indeed gone the way of Chris Shelton. I'd probably go with Upton, based mostly on that Walk-Off Grand-Slam.

AL Third Base
2007 RARP leader: Alex Rodriguez (34.4). Duh.
Current Votes: A-Rod leads by almost a million votes ahead of Mike Lowell.
Gut Pick: A-Rod. Easiest pick ever. I'd probably wouldn't want to do it too quickly so that I didn't punch Nick Punto's hole by mistake.

AL Shortstop
2007 RARP leader: Derek Jeter (20.0) with a slight lead over Orlando Cabrera (18.8)
Current Votes: Jeter, obvi, by not nearly enough over Carlos Guillen.
Gut Pick. DEH-rek JEE-ter (Clap Clap, Clap-Clap-Clap)

AL Outfield
2007 RARP leaders: Magglio Ordonez (35.2), Vladamir Gurerro (28.0), Grady Sizemore (28.6)
Current Votes: Vlad the Impaler (1.1 M), Manny being Manny (823K) Ichiro! (756K).
Gut Picks: Vlad, mos def, even without stats I know he's having a redonkulous season. I had no idea Magglio was leading the world in RARP, so I probably wouldn't have picked him. But, I do tend to pick one from each outfield position, to give the team balance, and to avoid having no one capable of playing center field. Manny is having an off year, so I'd probably go with Ichiro and Sizemore.

Switching gears a bit, the pitching staffs aren't voted in by the fans, so I'll go with more of a rigorous approach to my selections. Wins and saves don't really matter all that much to me, and I'd be inclined to take the top six pitchers in each of the following categories.

AL Starting Pitchers
2007 VORP Leaders:
Dan Haren (40.4)
James Shields (29.6)
John Lackey (29.0)
C.C. Sabbathia (26.9)
Justin Verlander (25.7)
Andy Pettitte (24.7)

I think the above six pitchers would make a fine pitching staff. Slim chance that Shields makes the team though (despite being 6-0), since Upton or Crawford will probably be the D-Rays rep. And of course Boston fans will clamor for Josh Beckett (9-1, 3.35 ERA). At this point I don't have a problem with it, as long as he doesn't start the game. Haren should start, with Sabbathia as my second choice if you must have someone with a lot of wins.

AL Relievers
2007 WXRL (A stat that takes a Win Expectancy Matrix and calculates how effective a reliever is at nailing down the win for his team. Takes into account some things that stats like saves (even I could finish with a 3-run lead many times) don't, and includes ability to prevent inherited runners from scoring):
JJ Putz (3.285)
Al Reyes (2.739)
Rafael Betancourt (2.733)
Hideki Okajima (2.569)
Casey Janssen (2.403)
Pat Neshek (2.315)

Those numbers are measured in wins added, so that's pretty significant for half a season. Anyway, those last four aren't even their teams' closer, which means that their managers are using effective releivers in non-save situations. That's pretty laudable from a SABR standpoint, but in theory your most effective releiever (the closer) should be in the highest leverage situations.

Putz should absolutely be on the team, along with Fransisco Rodriguez (despite being just 28th in WXRL), and (cringe) Jonathan Papelbon. Okajima's got the hype and the stats and will probably continue the tradition of having one token middle reliever on the roster. Borowski will probably make it over Betancourt, and we may see something not seen since 1997- an ASG without Mariano Rivera. I suppose its possible he continues his refound dominance and makes a case, but I can't see Leyland picking him over the luckiest closer of all time- Todd Jones.

So there we have it. Let the debate begin.