Three different people messaged me during last night’s Duke-BC game to make the same complaint as the Blue Devils’ lead whittled: that “stall-ball” was killing the team. I eventually had to leave the DBR Chat for the same reason, because the reactionary fans there were making it unbearable. What I want to do here is have an open discussion about the general strategy of slowing down the offense with a big lead late in the game. First, the data, and my thoughts. I have compiled the following sequence from the play-by-play data of CBS and ESPN.
The critical stretch, then, is from 12:36 to 5:05, Duke scored 3 points, while BC scored 14. Unfortunately I did not record the game and so cannot go back and verify this, but I believe the only possessions in that stretch where Duke played “stall ball” were the first two. Henderson chucked up an awkward shot with the clock about to buzz; the next possession, McRoberts inexplicably passed to Nelson with two seconds left. In Duke’s next possession, they burned nearly a minute off the clock with two offensive rebounds. I distinctly remember there not being a “stalling” tactic, as Duke employed an old-school weave play at the top of the key. Unfortunately, one of McRoberts’ passes flew out of bounds, and the possession ended.
The next sequence I think is the best evidence that slowing the game down was a correct strategy. On the next trip down the court, Paulus made a 30-foot chest pass to Scheyer, who pulled up and took a wide open three, which clanked off the rim. Since eight of the ten players on the court were between the arcs, BC easily grabbed the rebound, made two outlet passes and Marshall hit a wide open 3 to cut the lead to 12.
Duke’s next scoring drought lasted three minutes, through four possessions. None of these possessions was particularly “stalling,” especially once Duke’s lead was cut to 8 with three minutes left. The offense was moving, and burned a lot of clock. However, those things that need to happen for a team to close out a game- making free throws, getting offensive rebounds- stopped happening, and BC pulled closer and closer.
So Duke’s “stall-ball” offense lasted all of three minutes when Duke had a lead that ranged from 22 to 12 points. Duke’s fast pace up to that point was the result of poor shooting and bad passing by Boston College. This also ceased in the final ten minutes, and so did Duke’s opportunity for a transition game. It is certainly frustrating to watch an offense slowing down and watching leads slip away. But imagine what could have happened had a suddenly hot-shooting BC team been able to have more possessions with which to score.
A football fan wouldn’t argue with his team burning the clock while up 10 points in the fourth quarter. More appropriately (in a game where possession is more fluid, like basketball) soccer fans would never argue against their team protecting a two-goal lead by passing around the back. An excellent basketball-coaching site describes the advantages of the delay offense, and points out its effectiveness against an opponent who sits back in a zone despite a big deficit. If anyone has the game tape from last night, I am willing to bet anything that BC was sitting in a 2-3 zone during the first two possessions on the list, and so holding a 22 point lead against a passive defense- delaying the game was absolutely the right call.
Showing posts with label Duke Game Thoughts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Duke Game Thoughts. Show all posts
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Rethinking Crazie-ness
Right now I feel it's like I need to relearn how to be a Duke fan. I watched college basketball before college, though it was mainly limited to March. I rooted against Carolina because I had a friend who was a typical obnoxious Tar Heel fan. By the time I knew I wanted to go to Duke, my rooting interest was clear. It helped that Williams, Battier, and Boozer brought home a title during my junior year of high school.
In the four years I attended, Duke lost eleven games. They lost exactly three home games. I saw some of the most outstanding basketball you can see at the college level, with Duke dismantling their opponents in almost every game at Cameron. This has been true of Duke teams since the 1998-99 season, but it may be no more. That's no knock against this year's very talented Duke team. Rather, it's extraordinary, the run that Duke has had over the last decade.
This season, Duke is now 18-6, and they've lost their last three games. But to this Duke fan, and to many younger fans I'm sure, it is a shock to watch what is happening this season. What it requires, I feel, is a change in my attitude as a fan. Wins are not guaranteed, nor are losses this rare shock that shakes us to the core. McRoberts and Paulus are leading a good basketball team. It is not a great basketball team, and this year's team is human. They make mistakes, but they learn from them: prior to the loss to Virginia Tech, Duke had turned the ball over in 25% or more of its possessions in six of fourteen games. Since then, they have not exceeded that mark in seven games. The individual player growth is considerable and obvious, but it is nowhere near complete. In comparison to UNC's group of freshman, Duke's young players were never rated as high as Brandon Wright and Ty Lawson; it should come as no surprise that they are further developed than Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson.
And so this should be an exciting time to be a Duke basketball fan. Sure, the winning all the time years were great, but we should have all realized that they are fleeting. Losing to Carolina will always sting, but not every loss should come as a Stomach Punch the way that it has in the past. Screaming at a Greg Paulus turnover or a Josh McRoberts weak missed layup isn't going to accomplish much- they don't "suck," they're just not Jayson Williams and Shelden Williams, at least not yet. There is probably the tendency across Blue Devil Nation tonight that we are suddenly back in the dark days of 1996 with a poor team-- that is simply not the case. Duke lost to a better team tonight... for what it's worth, Ken Pomeroy's predictor (based on offense and defense rating) had UNC winning by two. Shots didn't fall for Duke down the stretch, and foul trouble ended up being the edge that many (including me!) predicted it would.
But, hopefully, things will turn around. The shots will start falling the way that they haven't in the last three games, and the team will surprise down the stretch, I can feel it. I don't think it's lowering expectations, I think its shifting them. It's not like this is a bad team, it's just not a championship team... yet. And so as a Duke fan it might take some adjustment to root for a team that is good, but not great- for a fan who is no longer a student and is simply a loyal fan of his alma mater, I think this adjustment can lead to even more excitement and fulfillment from each and every game.
In the four years I attended, Duke lost eleven games. They lost exactly three home games. I saw some of the most outstanding basketball you can see at the college level, with Duke dismantling their opponents in almost every game at Cameron. This has been true of Duke teams since the 1998-99 season, but it may be no more. That's no knock against this year's very talented Duke team. Rather, it's extraordinary, the run that Duke has had over the last decade.
This season, Duke is now 18-6, and they've lost their last three games. But to this Duke fan, and to many younger fans I'm sure, it is a shock to watch what is happening this season. What it requires, I feel, is a change in my attitude as a fan. Wins are not guaranteed, nor are losses this rare shock that shakes us to the core. McRoberts and Paulus are leading a good basketball team. It is not a great basketball team, and this year's team is human. They make mistakes, but they learn from them: prior to the loss to Virginia Tech, Duke had turned the ball over in 25% or more of its possessions in six of fourteen games. Since then, they have not exceeded that mark in seven games. The individual player growth is considerable and obvious, but it is nowhere near complete. In comparison to UNC's group of freshman, Duke's young players were never rated as high as Brandon Wright and Ty Lawson; it should come as no surprise that they are further developed than Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson.
And so this should be an exciting time to be a Duke basketball fan. Sure, the winning all the time years were great, but we should have all realized that they are fleeting. Losing to Carolina will always sting, but not every loss should come as a Stomach Punch the way that it has in the past. Screaming at a Greg Paulus turnover or a Josh McRoberts weak missed layup isn't going to accomplish much- they don't "suck," they're just not Jayson Williams and Shelden Williams, at least not yet. There is probably the tendency across Blue Devil Nation tonight that we are suddenly back in the dark days of 1996 with a poor team-- that is simply not the case. Duke lost to a better team tonight... for what it's worth, Ken Pomeroy's predictor (based on offense and defense rating) had UNC winning by two. Shots didn't fall for Duke down the stretch, and foul trouble ended up being the edge that many (including me!) predicted it would.
But, hopefully, things will turn around. The shots will start falling the way that they haven't in the last three games, and the team will surprise down the stretch, I can feel it. I don't think it's lowering expectations, I think its shifting them. It's not like this is a bad team, it's just not a championship team... yet. And so as a Duke fan it might take some adjustment to root for a team that is good, but not great- for a fan who is no longer a student and is simply a loyal fan of his alma mater, I think this adjustment can lead to even more excitement and fulfillment from each and every game.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Duke v GT Game Thoughts
Well, welcome to ACC road play, young Blue Devils. Duke fell, 74-63 to Georgia Tech last night in a game that went not at all like the Blue Devils planned. As captured in the preview (see below), Georgia Tech's strength all season had been its interior play, making a high percentage of its two point shots. This suggested that Duke focus on being tall and athletic on defense, which was reflecting in the starting lineup: Josh McRoberts, Lance Thomas, Gerald Henderson, DeMarcus Nelson, and Jon Scheyer. Duke dominated in the first three minutes, jumping out to a 10-2 lead. At this point, Greg Paulus and Dave McClure were substituted for Thomas and Henderson, with Paulus committing an immediate foul. Georgia Tech then went on an 10-0 run to take a lead that was never relinquished.
The key to the game, for Georgia Tech, was their offensive efficiency. Though the strength of Duke's defense is normally the ability to lock down the perimeter, the Yellow Jackets found themselves double teamed and frustrated in the paint. It was a great game plan and well executed by Coach K's squad; however, Georgia Tech responded by taking Duke's apparent defensive strength out of play. Thaddeus Young and Anthony Morrow combined to go 5 for 7 from beyond the arc, which brought both of their season rates up to 39%. Once Duke got off of its down-low game plan, Georgia Tech went back to its two strengths: points in the paint and transition offense.
That transition offense was sparked in part by another subpar effort from the Duke offense. In fact, at an efficiency of just 85 points per 100 possessions, it was by far Duke's worst offensive game this season. Despite showing an above average ability to grab the offensive board this season, Duke managed just 7 rebounds out of a staggering 34 missed shots, including 16 from behind the arc. Just as surprising as Morrow and Young for Georgia Tech was Scheyer for Duke: the freshman hit just three of his ten 3pt attempts, dragging his average down to 39%.
Georgia Tech's 24 defensive rebounds and 11 steals were more than enough for them to bump up the tempo. Duke had 75 possessions in this game, which is 15 more than their season average heading into the game, and it is no coincidence that 75 is exactly the average for Georgia Tech this season. Georgia Tech also got to the foul line at a much higher rate than usual, attempting 29 free throws (though six were in the final minute) on 19 Duke personal fouls. Duke, meanwhile, shot just 11 free throws on 17 personal fouls by GT.
There are few positives to take from Duke's performance in this game. Low post defense was extraordinary, with McRoberts, Thomas, and Zoubek all having solid games. Thaddeus Young was limited to just three shots inside the arc, forward Jeremeis Smith had none in 30 minutes. Help defense and double teams were also effective, with Scheyer and Nelson standing out. However, it did seem as though Duke tended to foul too often in those double team situations. While the referees called a solid game overall (especially calling the oft-missed over-the-back on rebounds), replays of many of these doubleteams show very little contact.
There's only so much that game film and reading statitsics can tell you, especially when you get on the court and an opponent's glaring weaknesses (three-point percentage, free throw rate, free throw percentage) suddenly become areas of strength. Credit the Georgia Tech players, who were likely fired up after a heartbreaking loss to Clemson, for rising above themselves for this contest. At the same time, it is unfair to write off Duke's offensive performance because "this year's team is all about defense." Last night's game was not just below average offensively- it was awful. Something needs to be done about cohesiveness (especially if Greg Paulus is to get a reduced role), effieciency, and discipline (crisp passes, hold on to the ball), or else it could be a very long ACC season for the Blue Devils.
The key to the game, for Georgia Tech, was their offensive efficiency. Though the strength of Duke's defense is normally the ability to lock down the perimeter, the Yellow Jackets found themselves double teamed and frustrated in the paint. It was a great game plan and well executed by Coach K's squad; however, Georgia Tech responded by taking Duke's apparent defensive strength out of play. Thaddeus Young and Anthony Morrow combined to go 5 for 7 from beyond the arc, which brought both of their season rates up to 39%. Once Duke got off of its down-low game plan, Georgia Tech went back to its two strengths: points in the paint and transition offense.
That transition offense was sparked in part by another subpar effort from the Duke offense. In fact, at an efficiency of just 85 points per 100 possessions, it was by far Duke's worst offensive game this season. Despite showing an above average ability to grab the offensive board this season, Duke managed just 7 rebounds out of a staggering 34 missed shots, including 16 from behind the arc. Just as surprising as Morrow and Young for Georgia Tech was Scheyer for Duke: the freshman hit just three of his ten 3pt attempts, dragging his average down to 39%.
Georgia Tech's 24 defensive rebounds and 11 steals were more than enough for them to bump up the tempo. Duke had 75 possessions in this game, which is 15 more than their season average heading into the game, and it is no coincidence that 75 is exactly the average for Georgia Tech this season. Georgia Tech also got to the foul line at a much higher rate than usual, attempting 29 free throws (though six were in the final minute) on 19 Duke personal fouls. Duke, meanwhile, shot just 11 free throws on 17 personal fouls by GT.
There are few positives to take from Duke's performance in this game. Low post defense was extraordinary, with McRoberts, Thomas, and Zoubek all having solid games. Thaddeus Young was limited to just three shots inside the arc, forward Jeremeis Smith had none in 30 minutes. Help defense and double teams were also effective, with Scheyer and Nelson standing out. However, it did seem as though Duke tended to foul too often in those double team situations. While the referees called a solid game overall (especially calling the oft-missed over-the-back on rebounds), replays of many of these doubleteams show very little contact.
There's only so much that game film and reading statitsics can tell you, especially when you get on the court and an opponent's glaring weaknesses (three-point percentage, free throw rate, free throw percentage) suddenly become areas of strength. Credit the Georgia Tech players, who were likely fired up after a heartbreaking loss to Clemson, for rising above themselves for this contest. At the same time, it is unfair to write off Duke's offensive performance because "this year's team is all about defense." Last night's game was not just below average offensively- it was awful. Something needs to be done about cohesiveness (especially if Greg Paulus is to get a reduced role), effieciency, and discipline (crisp passes, hold on to the ball), or else it could be a very long ACC season for the Blue Devils.
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