Since Swag just posted a discussion thread, I thought about holding off on this post, but it goes against my belief in the Principle of Anti-Too Much. There is no such thing as having too much beer in the fridge. There is no such thing as having too much cheese on your nachos. There's no such thing as having too much pitching. And there is no such thing as having too many posts on an upstart blog.
That brings us to a new weekly feature on the Immaculate Inning, the Publix Cookie of the Week. For those of you not from the Southeast US, Publix is the best grocery store ever. This is not up for debate. They also make awesome chocolate chip cookies, and are good to have on hand for when someone makes a statement having to do with something that they accomplished so that the sarcastic action of handing them a cookie may occur. This can apply to the entire range of impressivess, from the not at all impressive(for maximum sarcastic effect) to the extremely impressive.
For instance lets say Bob and Bill are two friends:
Bob: Oh man, I set a new high score on the helicopter flash game.
(Bill points at the box and Bob takes a cookie)
Bill: Sweet, I just cured cancer!
(Bob points at the box and Bill takes a cookie)
The recipient of the Cookie of the Week will be posted every Tuesday. On Monday I'll post a discussion thread, such as this one with some possible suggestions. The PCOW will typically be awarded to an athlete/team, but due to the arbitrary nature of blogs this is not set in stone.
Here's a couple nominees to get you started:
Phil Mickelson-won Pebble Beach
Maryland - beat Duke(convincingly)
Monday, February 12, 2007
The DLBQ - Monday, February 12
These will get posted every so often as open-forum questions. We will start off with just throwing out a question to be discussed in the comments, and probably come up with a more standard format in the future.
Today's Question:
"Lunardi has 9 acc teams in the ncaa tournament...you buying that?"
Discuss amongst yourselves.
p.s. Dear Maryland,
I hope you enjoyed last night. If you'd like a trophy to commemorate the occasion, I would be happy to send you one. You can put it next to the ones you got for participation in the past two NITs.
Love,
Agent Swag
p.s. You're STILL not our rivals.
Today's Question:
"Lunardi has 9 acc teams in the ncaa tournament...you buying that?"
Discuss amongst yourselves.
p.s. Dear Maryland,
I hope you enjoyed last night. If you'd like a trophy to commemorate the occasion, I would be happy to send you one. You can put it next to the ones you got for participation in the past two NITs.
Love,
Agent Swag
p.s. You're STILL not our rivals.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Duke at Maryland Preview
It is anyone's guess what kind of basketball team will stagger into the Comcast center tonight to face Maryland (5 PM, ESPN). The Blue Devils, having lost three straight since 1995, and may soon be in a position to hear a word not uttered in that same 12 years: the bubble. Maryland is no stranger to that bubble in recent years, and after beginning the season in the Top 25, the Terrapins have gone 3-6 in the conference and will need some quality wins before they can inch their way back into tournament discussion.
Both Duke and Maryland are teams playing well below their Pythagorean projection, which is based on combined offensive and defensive rating. While this may be partly because of both teams' dominance over non-conference opponents, it does give hope that both teams will find more luck in their close games in the future, as regression kicks in. However, this assumes that the teams do not lack some skill that give them a disadvantage in games that are close. As written back before the UNC game, these things could be fatigue, coaching strategy, even foul trouble.
Duke has played extraordinary first halves in its last three games, averaging 37 points (season ppg: 69.7), and has blown double-digit leads in all three games. Of course, pace matters, but these three games had widely different paces: from the racetrack UNC game (74 possessions, most for Duke this season), to the plodding pace of the Virginia game (57 possessions, second least for Duke this season). The FSU game was an average pace for Duke this season with 63 possessions. Despite the different styles, there are some worrying trends that emerge in the tempo-free team stats. Offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate were way down for Duke in the last three contests. While this may have been understandable against players such as Al Thorton and Tyler Hansbrough, it was inexcusable against Virginia. Part of the problem may actually be perimeter defense: when Duke's guards get trapped out beyond the arc, the top pick-setter in Duke's motion offense is the big man. So Josh McRoberts or Brian Zoubek is now 25 feet from the basket as the offense gets initiated, and out of position for rebounds. McRoberts compounds the problem with his propensity to take floaters or jump hooks, limiting contact, and therefore free throws.
The top key to the last three games, though, may be that Duke has played awful defense. When Duke has kept their opponent below 100 points/possession, they are 16-0. Above 100, they are 2-6 (lumping in the 99.8 performance by VT). Allowing 68 points to Virginia on just 57 possessions was pretty terrible, and it would have been a blowout had Virginia shot better (just 44.8 eFG%). It is curious that none of the other tempo-free statistics look particularly bad for Duke: the turnover rate is below average, but Duke's defensive strength has never been turnovers. It has been limiting the opponents' field goal percentage, particularly from beyond the arc. They did this against UNC (3 for 12) and Virginia (4 for 13) but not against FSU (8 for 16).
So, what to expect from the game tonight? Maryland, like UNC, likes to play a very fast pace. Luckily for Duke, this pace has led to one of the worst offensive efficiencies in ACC play (99 pts/100 poss- only WF is less than 100). Maryland hasn't rebounded the ball particularly well on either end in conference play, and only senior forward Ekene Ibekwe stands out (11.4 OR%, 5th in conference). The Terrapins score most of their points in the paint, with only a quarter of all points scored from beyond the arc. They rely on getting to the line more than average (25% of all points scored), but they don't shoot particularly well once there (69%), dragged down by the FT% of their two most frequent foul line participants (Strawberry and Ibekwe). Often, Maryland's points are keyed by assists from their guards- in fact, they have the highest percentage of assisted points in the conference. This is led by DJ Strawberry and Greivis Vasquez, who along with reserve frosh guard Eric Hayes all have assists on greater than 22% of their possessions played. The latter two players, however, combine this with a high turnover percentage; Strawberry, meanwhile, is good at keeping the turnovers down.
On the defensive end, Maryland likes to limit their opponent's three-point shooting and free throw rate. While Duke is 6th in the nation with a 28.8 3pt% against, Maryland is fifth with 28.7% against, and is also first in conference play. Duke, meanwhile, has faltered in conference play against the trey, allowing 36.6%. Maryland has trouble limiting shooting on 2-pt shots, though they do get the highest percentage of blocks in conference, led by Ibekwe.
For all these stats, it really feels quite apparent that the key to the game is like any other for Duke: limit the pace, step up the defense. Duke has not played a game faster than 74 possessions, Maryland is 9-5 when playing slower than 74 possessions (versus 9-2 at a faster pace). Maryland is at its weakest when it cannot grab the offensive rebound; Duke should look to return to its early-season dominance on the defensive boards, with McClure gaining minutes. Josh McRoberts must have a breakout game following the disappointing showing versus UNC- he must go in strong and get Ibekwe into foul trouble, for it will be much easier for Duke to score on the interior than with long-range shots.
This is a tough matchup for Duke, against a fast-paced, athletic team on the road (it's tough to play when batteries are flying at you). Pessimism and superstition reign here; a pick against Duke may turn things around (Coach K:"Hey, did you see what Immaculate Inning said about us?!? Let's go out there and show them what's for!") Maryland, 70-65.
Both Duke and Maryland are teams playing well below their Pythagorean projection, which is based on combined offensive and defensive rating. While this may be partly because of both teams' dominance over non-conference opponents, it does give hope that both teams will find more luck in their close games in the future, as regression kicks in. However, this assumes that the teams do not lack some skill that give them a disadvantage in games that are close. As written back before the UNC game, these things could be fatigue, coaching strategy, even foul trouble.
Duke has played extraordinary first halves in its last three games, averaging 37 points (season ppg: 69.7), and has blown double-digit leads in all three games. Of course, pace matters, but these three games had widely different paces: from the racetrack UNC game (74 possessions, most for Duke this season), to the plodding pace of the Virginia game (57 possessions, second least for Duke this season). The FSU game was an average pace for Duke this season with 63 possessions. Despite the different styles, there are some worrying trends that emerge in the tempo-free team stats. Offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate were way down for Duke in the last three contests. While this may have been understandable against players such as Al Thorton and Tyler Hansbrough, it was inexcusable against Virginia. Part of the problem may actually be perimeter defense: when Duke's guards get trapped out beyond the arc, the top pick-setter in Duke's motion offense is the big man. So Josh McRoberts or Brian Zoubek is now 25 feet from the basket as the offense gets initiated, and out of position for rebounds. McRoberts compounds the problem with his propensity to take floaters or jump hooks, limiting contact, and therefore free throws.
The top key to the last three games, though, may be that Duke has played awful defense. When Duke has kept their opponent below 100 points/possession, they are 16-0. Above 100, they are 2-6 (lumping in the 99.8 performance by VT). Allowing 68 points to Virginia on just 57 possessions was pretty terrible, and it would have been a blowout had Virginia shot better (just 44.8 eFG%). It is curious that none of the other tempo-free statistics look particularly bad for Duke: the turnover rate is below average, but Duke's defensive strength has never been turnovers. It has been limiting the opponents' field goal percentage, particularly from beyond the arc. They did this against UNC (3 for 12) and Virginia (4 for 13) but not against FSU (8 for 16).
So, what to expect from the game tonight? Maryland, like UNC, likes to play a very fast pace. Luckily for Duke, this pace has led to one of the worst offensive efficiencies in ACC play (99 pts/100 poss- only WF is less than 100). Maryland hasn't rebounded the ball particularly well on either end in conference play, and only senior forward Ekene Ibekwe stands out (11.4 OR%, 5th in conference). The Terrapins score most of their points in the paint, with only a quarter of all points scored from beyond the arc. They rely on getting to the line more than average (25% of all points scored), but they don't shoot particularly well once there (69%), dragged down by the FT% of their two most frequent foul line participants (Strawberry and Ibekwe). Often, Maryland's points are keyed by assists from their guards- in fact, they have the highest percentage of assisted points in the conference. This is led by DJ Strawberry and Greivis Vasquez, who along with reserve frosh guard Eric Hayes all have assists on greater than 22% of their possessions played. The latter two players, however, combine this with a high turnover percentage; Strawberry, meanwhile, is good at keeping the turnovers down.
On the defensive end, Maryland likes to limit their opponent's three-point shooting and free throw rate. While Duke is 6th in the nation with a 28.8 3pt% against, Maryland is fifth with 28.7% against, and is also first in conference play. Duke, meanwhile, has faltered in conference play against the trey, allowing 36.6%. Maryland has trouble limiting shooting on 2-pt shots, though they do get the highest percentage of blocks in conference, led by Ibekwe.
For all these stats, it really feels quite apparent that the key to the game is like any other for Duke: limit the pace, step up the defense. Duke has not played a game faster than 74 possessions, Maryland is 9-5 when playing slower than 74 possessions (versus 9-2 at a faster pace). Maryland is at its weakest when it cannot grab the offensive rebound; Duke should look to return to its early-season dominance on the defensive boards, with McClure gaining minutes. Josh McRoberts must have a breakout game following the disappointing showing versus UNC- he must go in strong and get Ibekwe into foul trouble, for it will be much easier for Duke to score on the interior than with long-range shots.
This is a tough matchup for Duke, against a fast-paced, athletic team on the road (it's tough to play when batteries are flying at you). Pessimism and superstition reign here; a pick against Duke may turn things around (Coach K:"Hey, did you see what Immaculate Inning said about us?!? Let's go out there and show them what's for!") Maryland, 70-65.
Thursday, February 8, 2007
Barry Bonds...
...should retire.
Up until 2004, if you looked at the alphabetically sorted list of players, the name at the top would be Henry "Hank" Aaron. The thought was that it was extremely convenient since in Hank Aaron, that was all you needed to know about baseball.
Aside from holding the immortal record of 755 career home runs, he also stole 240 bases during his career and had a Fielding Percentage of .980. Aside from the 755 homeruns, perhaps the most important thing is that he did all of this with the upmost class. Baseball writers never wrote about how he isolated himself from his teammates or the nearly definitive proof that he used steroids. Most importantly, there is no controversy about how he broke Babe Ruth's record of 714 career home runs.
Barry Bonds is the son of a great major league baseball player and the godson of one of the greatest. More than anyone else, he should know that he is not worthy to break the greatest record in all of sports. If he re-signs with the Giants and hits 22 more home runs, then he will start the biggest controversy in the history of baseball. If he cares at all about the history of the game, he should step down and let history judge his legacy.
Up until 2004, if you looked at the alphabetically sorted list of players, the name at the top would be Henry "Hank" Aaron. The thought was that it was extremely convenient since in Hank Aaron, that was all you needed to know about baseball.
Aside from holding the immortal record of 755 career home runs, he also stole 240 bases during his career and had a Fielding Percentage of .980. Aside from the 755 homeruns, perhaps the most important thing is that he did all of this with the upmost class. Baseball writers never wrote about how he isolated himself from his teammates or the nearly definitive proof that he used steroids. Most importantly, there is no controversy about how he broke Babe Ruth's record of 714 career home runs.
Barry Bonds is the son of a great major league baseball player and the godson of one of the greatest. More than anyone else, he should know that he is not worthy to break the greatest record in all of sports. If he re-signs with the Giants and hits 22 more home runs, then he will start the biggest controversy in the history of baseball. If he cares at all about the history of the game, he should step down and let history judge his legacy.
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Rethinking Crazie-ness
Right now I feel it's like I need to relearn how to be a Duke fan. I watched college basketball before college, though it was mainly limited to March. I rooted against Carolina because I had a friend who was a typical obnoxious Tar Heel fan. By the time I knew I wanted to go to Duke, my rooting interest was clear. It helped that Williams, Battier, and Boozer brought home a title during my junior year of high school.
In the four years I attended, Duke lost eleven games. They lost exactly three home games. I saw some of the most outstanding basketball you can see at the college level, with Duke dismantling their opponents in almost every game at Cameron. This has been true of Duke teams since the 1998-99 season, but it may be no more. That's no knock against this year's very talented Duke team. Rather, it's extraordinary, the run that Duke has had over the last decade.
This season, Duke is now 18-6, and they've lost their last three games. But to this Duke fan, and to many younger fans I'm sure, it is a shock to watch what is happening this season. What it requires, I feel, is a change in my attitude as a fan. Wins are not guaranteed, nor are losses this rare shock that shakes us to the core. McRoberts and Paulus are leading a good basketball team. It is not a great basketball team, and this year's team is human. They make mistakes, but they learn from them: prior to the loss to Virginia Tech, Duke had turned the ball over in 25% or more of its possessions in six of fourteen games. Since then, they have not exceeded that mark in seven games. The individual player growth is considerable and obvious, but it is nowhere near complete. In comparison to UNC's group of freshman, Duke's young players were never rated as high as Brandon Wright and Ty Lawson; it should come as no surprise that they are further developed than Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson.
And so this should be an exciting time to be a Duke basketball fan. Sure, the winning all the time years were great, but we should have all realized that they are fleeting. Losing to Carolina will always sting, but not every loss should come as a Stomach Punch the way that it has in the past. Screaming at a Greg Paulus turnover or a Josh McRoberts weak missed layup isn't going to accomplish much- they don't "suck," they're just not Jayson Williams and Shelden Williams, at least not yet. There is probably the tendency across Blue Devil Nation tonight that we are suddenly back in the dark days of 1996 with a poor team-- that is simply not the case. Duke lost to a better team tonight... for what it's worth, Ken Pomeroy's predictor (based on offense and defense rating) had UNC winning by two. Shots didn't fall for Duke down the stretch, and foul trouble ended up being the edge that many (including me!) predicted it would.
But, hopefully, things will turn around. The shots will start falling the way that they haven't in the last three games, and the team will surprise down the stretch, I can feel it. I don't think it's lowering expectations, I think its shifting them. It's not like this is a bad team, it's just not a championship team... yet. And so as a Duke fan it might take some adjustment to root for a team that is good, but not great- for a fan who is no longer a student and is simply a loyal fan of his alma mater, I think this adjustment can lead to even more excitement and fulfillment from each and every game.
In the four years I attended, Duke lost eleven games. They lost exactly three home games. I saw some of the most outstanding basketball you can see at the college level, with Duke dismantling their opponents in almost every game at Cameron. This has been true of Duke teams since the 1998-99 season, but it may be no more. That's no knock against this year's very talented Duke team. Rather, it's extraordinary, the run that Duke has had over the last decade.
This season, Duke is now 18-6, and they've lost their last three games. But to this Duke fan, and to many younger fans I'm sure, it is a shock to watch what is happening this season. What it requires, I feel, is a change in my attitude as a fan. Wins are not guaranteed, nor are losses this rare shock that shakes us to the core. McRoberts and Paulus are leading a good basketball team. It is not a great basketball team, and this year's team is human. They make mistakes, but they learn from them: prior to the loss to Virginia Tech, Duke had turned the ball over in 25% or more of its possessions in six of fourteen games. Since then, they have not exceeded that mark in seven games. The individual player growth is considerable and obvious, but it is nowhere near complete. In comparison to UNC's group of freshman, Duke's young players were never rated as high as Brandon Wright and Ty Lawson; it should come as no surprise that they are further developed than Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson.
And so this should be an exciting time to be a Duke basketball fan. Sure, the winning all the time years were great, but we should have all realized that they are fleeting. Losing to Carolina will always sting, but not every loss should come as a Stomach Punch the way that it has in the past. Screaming at a Greg Paulus turnover or a Josh McRoberts weak missed layup isn't going to accomplish much- they don't "suck," they're just not Jayson Williams and Shelden Williams, at least not yet. There is probably the tendency across Blue Devil Nation tonight that we are suddenly back in the dark days of 1996 with a poor team-- that is simply not the case. Duke lost to a better team tonight... for what it's worth, Ken Pomeroy's predictor (based on offense and defense rating) had UNC winning by two. Shots didn't fall for Duke down the stretch, and foul trouble ended up being the edge that many (including me!) predicted it would.
But, hopefully, things will turn around. The shots will start falling the way that they haven't in the last three games, and the team will surprise down the stretch, I can feel it. I don't think it's lowering expectations, I think its shifting them. It's not like this is a bad team, it's just not a championship team... yet. And so as a Duke fan it might take some adjustment to root for a team that is good, but not great- for a fan who is no longer a student and is simply a loyal fan of his alma mater, I think this adjustment can lead to even more excitement and fulfillment from each and every game.
To Hell
This is an age where hyperbole of sports situations and instant history are taken to extreme levels, and coverage of rivalries has spiked as the mainstream sports media feeds on the yearly rivalry stories. Still, all this hype and exaggeration has still managed to underestimate the intensity of perhaps the greatest rivalry of them all: Duke and Carolina.
Many of the students at these two esteemed universities learn their loyalty while attending, realizing the greatness in the rivalry’s intensity through experience. For others, especially those raised in North Carolina, it is almost as if each child is branded with either shade of blue at birth. In 2005, months before UNC was to win their fourth national championship, I had the opportunity to witness this branding firsthand, at East Carteret High School in Beaufort, NC. You see, most of these children had never been as far away from home as Raleigh (100 miles to the northwest) or Myrtle Beach (75 miles south). And yet, the week of the Duke-Carolina game, suddenly the students started to segregate into different shades of blue. The day of the game, it was powerful: just seeing a fellow student wearing a cap with the gothic “D” prompted immediate shouts of “Duke Sucks!” and the retort “Go to Hell Carolina!” in the hallways. Nearly 200 miles from Cameron Indoor Stadium, it was no different from visiting a Wal-Mart on Tobacco Road while wearing my Duke sweatshirt, and being greeted by death-stares from UNC supporters.
The reason I offered this story is because of the ultimate futility of previewing a Duke-Carolina game in the manner I have so far offered. Statistical analysis and past performance goes out the window when rivalries are involved. It is not just pro-Duke bias I am worried about; I am quite sure that is indicated in everything I’ve written so far. It’s pro-Carolina bias as well, driven by that paranoia that is present in the best rivalries. I watched UNC dismantle (an Oden-less) Ohio State back in November, and destroy Arizona in Tempe just last month, and I can’t help but be scared for my beloved and inconsistent Blue Devils. In four years as a student, Duke lost at home three times: Georgia Tech in 2004, Maryland in 2005, and UNC in 2006. This season, Duke has lost at home twice already, and the home-court advantage that Cameron Indoor Stadium provides may not be enough to overcome a Tar Heel squad that I have built up in my mind to tremendous levels.
And my intuition is indeed supported by the statistics: though Duke’s adjusted defensive efficiency is best in the nation (80.5 points per 100 possessions), UNC is number two, and has closed the gap considerably (80.6). On offense, it is no surprise that UNC is quite superior, running over opponents with a 121 points per 100 possessions (7th in the nation) at a frenzied pace (74.2 possessions/game, 9th in nation). The portrayal in the mainstream sports media of Duke’s inept offense is pretty exaggerated, though. Many fans look at the point totals and see that Duke is averaging just 69.4 ppg, way behind UNC’s 88.1 ppg. However, Duke has one of the slowest paces in the nation (65.0 possessions/game, 252nd), and scores rather efficiently in their few opportunities (111.9 points/100 possessions, 49th in nation). This really is a match-up of two extraordinary defenses, along with one great offense (UNC) and one good offense (Duke). The game, quite clearly, will come down to which team will be able to dictate pace.
Duke can find some hope in that UNC has lost twice in conference already, both times on the road. In fact, in all three losses this season, the Tar Heels have had three of their four worst defensive games. What was key for both Virginia Tech and NC State was their ability to get to the free-throw line, making their offensive possessions much more efficient. With this efficiency, both teams were able to play a much faster game than they normally play and still be able to hang with Carolina. Both VT and NCSU were able to prevent UNC from grabbing too many offensive rebounds, and this has been one of Duke’s strengths so far as well. However, Duke has failed to get to the line very much in conference play. Rather than go through all the statistics, I figured I’d just post a chart:
This shows the relative rankings of Duke and UNC in a lot of different stats. The only unfamiliar ones may be EFG% which is effective field goal percentage (shooting success weighted by free throws and shots from behind the arc) and PPWS (points per weighted shot: how many points a team scores every time it shoots the ball). These stats were taken from Paul Rugani’s amazing site, DBDHoops.
Even if Duke is able to slow the game down to a half-court pace, they still have to deal with Tyler Hansbrough. The problem with the match-up isn’t in doubting the defensive ability of Josh McRoberts, who has been outstanding on defense. The key will be in how tight a game the referees will be calling down low. Hansbrough likes to initiate a lot of contact, and as Rugani pointed out, he shoots 4 free throws for every 5 field goals, an absurd free throw rate. Meanwhile Brandon Wright has been no slouch, shooting an EFG% of 63.4% (38th in all of D-I). If McRoberts gets into foul trouble early, this game will be all pale blue in a hurry.
The perimeter play is not as crucial for UNC, except in terms of generating assists and steals. Ty Lawson has stolen the minutes from his elders with strong play from the point guard position, and his assist/turnover ratio (4th in ACC) and steal percentage (1st in ACC) are the results on which his increased minutes are based. Limiting turnovers is once again critical for Duke, though being efficient on offense in general is going to be the key for Duke.
The Blue Devils are now playing below their winning percentage as predicted from their points for and points against totals (known as Pythagorean Winning Percentage). This is clearly due to their inability to close out close games effectively, owning a 1-3 record in games decided by five or fewer points. There are two ways to look at this number: either Duke’s “luck” will turn around and the shots will fall in crunch time, or that Duke has some kind of inability to win in close pressure situations, be it because of foul trouble or fatigue or (gasp!) poor coaching strategy. I’d like to think it’s the former, and I’d like to think that McRoberts can become a force in this game and keep it close enough for the Cameron Crazies to have a reason to burn shit tonight. Duke, 72-70.
Many of the students at these two esteemed universities learn their loyalty while attending, realizing the greatness in the rivalry’s intensity through experience. For others, especially those raised in North Carolina, it is almost as if each child is branded with either shade of blue at birth. In 2005, months before UNC was to win their fourth national championship, I had the opportunity to witness this branding firsthand, at East Carteret High School in Beaufort, NC. You see, most of these children had never been as far away from home as Raleigh (100 miles to the northwest) or Myrtle Beach (75 miles south). And yet, the week of the Duke-Carolina game, suddenly the students started to segregate into different shades of blue. The day of the game, it was powerful: just seeing a fellow student wearing a cap with the gothic “D” prompted immediate shouts of “Duke Sucks!” and the retort “Go to Hell Carolina!” in the hallways. Nearly 200 miles from Cameron Indoor Stadium, it was no different from visiting a Wal-Mart on Tobacco Road while wearing my Duke sweatshirt, and being greeted by death-stares from UNC supporters.
The reason I offered this story is because of the ultimate futility of previewing a Duke-Carolina game in the manner I have so far offered. Statistical analysis and past performance goes out the window when rivalries are involved. It is not just pro-Duke bias I am worried about; I am quite sure that is indicated in everything I’ve written so far. It’s pro-Carolina bias as well, driven by that paranoia that is present in the best rivalries. I watched UNC dismantle (an Oden-less) Ohio State back in November, and destroy Arizona in Tempe just last month, and I can’t help but be scared for my beloved and inconsistent Blue Devils. In four years as a student, Duke lost at home three times: Georgia Tech in 2004, Maryland in 2005, and UNC in 2006. This season, Duke has lost at home twice already, and the home-court advantage that Cameron Indoor Stadium provides may not be enough to overcome a Tar Heel squad that I have built up in my mind to tremendous levels.
And my intuition is indeed supported by the statistics: though Duke’s adjusted defensive efficiency is best in the nation (80.5 points per 100 possessions), UNC is number two, and has closed the gap considerably (80.6). On offense, it is no surprise that UNC is quite superior, running over opponents with a 121 points per 100 possessions (7th in the nation) at a frenzied pace (74.2 possessions/game, 9th in nation). The portrayal in the mainstream sports media of Duke’s inept offense is pretty exaggerated, though. Many fans look at the point totals and see that Duke is averaging just 69.4 ppg, way behind UNC’s 88.1 ppg. However, Duke has one of the slowest paces in the nation (65.0 possessions/game, 252nd), and scores rather efficiently in their few opportunities (111.9 points/100 possessions, 49th in nation). This really is a match-up of two extraordinary defenses, along with one great offense (UNC) and one good offense (Duke). The game, quite clearly, will come down to which team will be able to dictate pace.
Duke can find some hope in that UNC has lost twice in conference already, both times on the road. In fact, in all three losses this season, the Tar Heels have had three of their four worst defensive games. What was key for both Virginia Tech and NC State was their ability to get to the free-throw line, making their offensive possessions much more efficient. With this efficiency, both teams were able to play a much faster game than they normally play and still be able to hang with Carolina. Both VT and NCSU were able to prevent UNC from grabbing too many offensive rebounds, and this has been one of Duke’s strengths so far as well. However, Duke has failed to get to the line very much in conference play. Rather than go through all the statistics, I figured I’d just post a chart:
This shows the relative rankings of Duke and UNC in a lot of different stats. The only unfamiliar ones may be EFG% which is effective field goal percentage (shooting success weighted by free throws and shots from behind the arc) and PPWS (points per weighted shot: how many points a team scores every time it shoots the ball). These stats were taken from Paul Rugani’s amazing site, DBDHoops.
Even if Duke is able to slow the game down to a half-court pace, they still have to deal with Tyler Hansbrough. The problem with the match-up isn’t in doubting the defensive ability of Josh McRoberts, who has been outstanding on defense. The key will be in how tight a game the referees will be calling down low. Hansbrough likes to initiate a lot of contact, and as Rugani pointed out, he shoots 4 free throws for every 5 field goals, an absurd free throw rate. Meanwhile Brandon Wright has been no slouch, shooting an EFG% of 63.4% (38th in all of D-I). If McRoberts gets into foul trouble early, this game will be all pale blue in a hurry.
The perimeter play is not as crucial for UNC, except in terms of generating assists and steals. Ty Lawson has stolen the minutes from his elders with strong play from the point guard position, and his assist/turnover ratio (4th in ACC) and steal percentage (1st in ACC) are the results on which his increased minutes are based. Limiting turnovers is once again critical for Duke, though being efficient on offense in general is going to be the key for Duke.
The Blue Devils are now playing below their winning percentage as predicted from their points for and points against totals (known as Pythagorean Winning Percentage). This is clearly due to their inability to close out close games effectively, owning a 1-3 record in games decided by five or fewer points. There are two ways to look at this number: either Duke’s “luck” will turn around and the shots will fall in crunch time, or that Duke has some kind of inability to win in close pressure situations, be it because of foul trouble or fatigue or (gasp!) poor coaching strategy. I’d like to think it’s the former, and I’d like to think that McRoberts can become a force in this game and keep it close enough for the Cameron Crazies to have a reason to burn shit tonight. Duke, 72-70.
Thursday, February 1, 2007
HOO are you?
So, apologies to all those who were anxiously anticipating my Duke-UVA preview. Lots has been written about this game, and honestly I was wasn't in the mood to be analytical and journalistic, and more in the mood for one liners and snark. So I'm gonna try something new and "liveblog" this game, making statistical commentary as needed (probably at halftime). McClure doesn't appear to be available for this game, so containing Singletary and Reynolds may fall to Nelson and Scheyer, and those matchups could be crucial to this game. Tip off time:
20:00 Duke starts McRobterts, Paulus, Nelson, Thomas, and Scheyer.
19:06 Thomas scores the first points for Duke. The Blue Devil big men could have a big night with soft defense like that.
17:35 Reynolds grabs a rebound and takes it right to the basket without much resistance. That could be a problem.
16:45 Three blocks in a row by McBobs... strike my previous comment.
15:06 Trading 3's on both ends... One would think this would benefit Duke's superior 3pt defense.
First Media Break: The pace is normal for Virginia, but frantic for Duke. The Blue Devils need to start grabbing the rebounds of their long-range shots to prevent the running game. But they still lead, 15-9. It appears I was wrong about Dave McClure, as he is now in the game, along with Henderson.
12:10. There haven't been any points scored in 3 minutes. Not really any sloppy play, just a bunch of missed shots.
12:05 Singletary breaks the drought with another drive right to the hoop. McRoberts isn't anywhere near the paint, and he scored easily.
Second Media Break The pace is still pretty frantic for Duke, but now the gap is smaller, 17-14. When Virginia is in a transition mode, it seems like Duke's defense can't keep up (and Singletary/Reynolds simply drive or shoot a 3). But when Duke forces UVA into a half-court, the Duke Defense tightens up considerably (like McBobs' blocks).
10:28 Paulus declares that the bank is indeed open, then Cain misses an easy dunk. HOO can't dunk? He can't dunk!
9:22 Henderson with a high-flying block, snuffing a transition opportunity by UVA after a Scheyer turnover.
8:59 Cain redeems himself, dunking over McRoberts. I appreciate that he's not trying to get into foul trouble, but he's gotta start asserting himself to stop the dribble penetration.
8:23 Oh good, a Sportscenter 30 at 30. Because I tune into ESPN just to watch a sports update every 30 minutes, rather than going online or to ESPN News. I really really hate it.
Third Media Break. Duke's increased the lead to 24-16, thanks to some good inside scoring by Duke and some poor judgment by UVA players on their offensive end. Something else happened right before the break, but I have no idea what, since the game was reduced to 1/4 of the screen. Thanks, WWL.
6:48 McRoberts steps up on a drive, finally. Thomas gets whistled for a foul on the rebound, his second. The replay shows no contact whatsoever. But Duke gets all the calls, right?
5:49 Reynolds called for a carry, stopping a 5 on 2 UVA advantage on a break. Duke needs to put UVA away or the Virginia running game is going to come back to bite the Blue Devils.
4:41 Nelson hits a floater in the lane to make it 30-19. This is what I'm talking about, slow it down, take a smart shot, own the paint with superior inside play.
2:33 Timeout Duke after a 3 from Diane following yet another dribble penetration and dish by Singletary.
2:10 McRoberts finishes down low, he might have taken a few too many steps.
1:27 Good burning of clock by Duke has an unfortunate finish- out of control turnover by Henderson.
1:03 "Tremendous acting job" (according to Mike Patrick) by Singletary. So, what you're saying is you're excited by cheating, Mike? Singletary hits both freebies.
37.1 Zoubek goes over the back, silly foul, could build momentum if Lars hits these. He hits one.
24.6 Lars picks up a foul 30 feet from the basket on McRoberts. I guess they had a foul to give, but still...
0:00 Henderson dribbles around a lot, puts up a long two and misses. A curious last possession.
Halftime thoughts: Duke limited Singletary and Reynolds to 5 of 14 shooting, and kept the pace down overall, just 31 possessions (Duke averages 65 possessions per game).
18:00. Diane hits another mid-range jumper. Virginia seems to be responding to the perimeter and paint defense with mid-range shots.
17:25 Singletary hits a layup to make it 38-35. Duke misses a layup and we have a game.
16:42 Thomas goes strong to the hoop for a 3-pt play opportunity. Lance sinks it, Duke's lead is back to 6, and Thomas goes back to the bench (he has 3 fouls).
Media Timeout: Not really sure how Duke can expect to defend the quickness of Singletary and Reynolds in the mid-range game. Instead they need to respond by sticking to their offensive game plan and limiting mistakes on that end. An efficient offense is a good defense in this case.
Duke Timeout, 12:46. Been kind of distracted the last few minutes, but Reynolds has scored a bunch more with pull-up jumpers, and Duke has been sloppy on offense. Coach K with his standard "Basketball. You guys are playing bas-ket-ball." Timeout.
12:12 Duke is still playing sloppy offense. Turnovers. No Offensive rebounds. Chaotic shot selection.
11:26 Reynolds adds an exclamation point trey to a well run half-court possession for UVA.
Media Timeout, 11:08 43-42 Duke.
10:30 Sweet, Carmelo Anthony wasn't selected to the NBA All-Star Team. Oh wait, I DON'T CARE. And I miss another possession because of it.
9:50 Quite the athletic rebound by Henderson, tossing it to Paulus falling out of bounds.
McBobs finishes on the ensuing possession with a pretty right jumphook.
8:25 Scheyer with a crazy tip in on Paulus' short shot with the clock winding. Paulus should have been shooting three, as he was knocked down. But Duke gets all the calls...
7:43 Cain traps McRoberts' arm between his and #2 gets whistled for the foul.
Media Timeout 49-46 Duke. Virginia hasn't lead since it was 6-4 but have been hanging around, and their ability to run could aid them if it stays close when it's late. Duke hasn't produced much excitement on the offensive end, with their matchup-zone giving Paulus some difficulty (though he's limited his turnovers).
7:14 Scheyer runs into a (clearly moving) screen by Cain, ends up under Reynolds's feet and gets called for a foul. Reynolds gets a chance to tie the game. And he does.
6:55 McRoberts answers, going strong to the hoop. We're in for a tight finish.
5:44 Scheyer knocks down a three on a pass by McRoberts. Singletary rushes a shot and Duke can slow it down with a six point lead.
4:57 Thomas fouls out, called for a moving pick. His feet didn't move, unlike Cain's knockdown of Scheyer two minutes earlier. But Duke gets all the calls...
4:29 Nelson hits a three-pointer as Reynolds writhes on the other end of the court. UVA fans are upset, but he's not part of the play, they shouldn't stop the clock.
4:11 McClure with a solid block of Diane, Paulus initiates the slow-down offense.
3:42 McRoberts hits a running floater with five on the shot clock, and will go to the line for the 3-pt play.
Media Timeout. The foul situation: with Thomas out, the next Blue Devil in danger is McRoberts, who has three. Mikalauskas (yeah, I had to look it up) also has three but he hasn't been playing much. Duke's now in the single bonus, and has a foul to give on the other end.
3:19 Reynolds hits off the glass, 59-53. Nelson turns the ball over and then fouls Reynolds.
2:58 Reynolds hits both to cut the lead to four. McRoberts fouled by Cain, who now has four personal fouls.
2:38 Nelson grabs a rebound and is tied up, possession arrow goes to Duke, and Paulus is still slowing it way down. UVA needs a stop, and Paulus loses it out of bounds right on cue.
Timeout UVA 61-55 Duke, 2:14 to go.
2:05 Reynolds hits two free throws, he has 23 points.
1:52 Paulus is body-checked by Singletary, no call, but Duke ball still.
1:34 Nelson can't throw it off Diane, UVA ball, 61-57 Duke.
1:15 McClure called for a blocking foul. By my replay, McClure's feet had been set for a good two seconds before Reynolds hit him. But Duke gets all the calls... Reynolds hits both, and its a one possession game.
Timeout UVA. ESPN replays all kinds of court-rushing upon beating Duke. I mean, it's an honor that upsetting the Blue Devils means so much, but in the end you've won a home game in the regular season. Yay? Paulus needs to control the ball in these last possesions. Duke needs to finish.
55.2 61-59 Duke, 15 on the Shot clock. I like the call by Coach K. Set em up. I say a set play for Scheyer from beyond the arc. It's a dagger type play that JJ and Duhon used to hit all the time.
41 Paulus shoots an off-balance runner that clanks off the rim.
24.8 Singletary hits a running jumper to tie the game. Duke can play for the last shot. McRoberts initiates with 8 seconds left. He misses a jumper with 3 seconds left. McClure has the ball knocked away but there isn't any call. Guess we're going to overtime.
Start of OT. Duke's got Nelson, McClure, McRoberts, Scheyer, and Paulus. I have the feeling this is Singletary's and Reynolds' game to lose. Singletary draws contact and goes to the line on the first possession. He hits both to put UVA up two.
4:24 Nelson misses a 3, McClure grabs the rebound. Paulus drives and gets to the free throw line. Cain fouls out with 6 points, 10 rebounds.
4:14 "Paulus Sucks" rains down as Greg hits both. Classy and creative fans, those Hoos. Reynolds comes off the court, limping. Tie game.
3:40 Diane scores a put-back layup. Can't let them have second chances.
3:22 Petinella pushes McRoberts in the back. The UVA crowd boos, predictably. Josh ties the game.
2:57 Thomas (?!?) fouls out (again?). Oh, ESPN just sucks, that's all. Petinella is 7 of 27 on the season. He bricks the first. I think I have better shooting form. Sinks the second, UVA up one.
2:42 Paulus' 25 footer rims out. Timeout UVA with 2:33 to go, up one.
2:08 Henderson with outstanding defense on Diane, and in the end forces the turnover. He drives on the other end and is fouled.
1:56 Henderson hits the first but misses the second. Rebound by Reynolds, boxing out the shooter. Tie Game.
1:31 Singletary with an airball three... fatigue, anyone?
1:14 McRoberts can't sink the shot over Lars.
1:00 Reynolds cramps up on a drive and McClure smacks it against the backboard.
30.2 Timeout Duke, 66-66 8 seconds on the shot clock. McRoberts still can't get to the hoop against Mikalauskas (that's "Lars" by the way). Reynolds is off the court again. Inbound to Scheyer, gets stuck in the corner and forces a 3 as the shot clock expires, UVA calls timeout at half-court with 17.0 seconds remaining, tie game. They can win it.
17.0 Both Virginia guards are in, but obviously fatigued. Inbound to Singletary in the back-court. Nelson on him. McRoberts switches onto him at the arc. He drives the lane and shoots a circus fade-away. It's in.
1.0 McRoberts will throw the ball in. They can only catch and shoot. He slides to his right and throws a bullet down court to Paulus, who gets the ball just a few feet from the arc. Paulus sidesteps Singletary and throws up a trey.... and it hits the back of the rim. And now there's fans on the court.
An excellent game on both ends. I don't mean to say with my "And Duke gets all the calls" comments that the refs handed Virginia this game. Both teams got their share of calls, and as usual for UVA, the difference was Singletary and Reynolds. While the mid-range jumper may be a lost art in most of college basketball, it was on fine display tonight in Charlottesville, and Duke had no answer. Final Score: UVA 68 Duke 66.
20:00 Duke starts McRobterts, Paulus, Nelson, Thomas, and Scheyer.
19:06 Thomas scores the first points for Duke. The Blue Devil big men could have a big night with soft defense like that.
17:35 Reynolds grabs a rebound and takes it right to the basket without much resistance. That could be a problem.
16:45 Three blocks in a row by McBobs... strike my previous comment.
15:06 Trading 3's on both ends... One would think this would benefit Duke's superior 3pt defense.
First Media Break: The pace is normal for Virginia, but frantic for Duke. The Blue Devils need to start grabbing the rebounds of their long-range shots to prevent the running game. But they still lead, 15-9. It appears I was wrong about Dave McClure, as he is now in the game, along with Henderson.
12:10. There haven't been any points scored in 3 minutes. Not really any sloppy play, just a bunch of missed shots.
12:05 Singletary breaks the drought with another drive right to the hoop. McRoberts isn't anywhere near the paint, and he scored easily.
Second Media Break The pace is still pretty frantic for Duke, but now the gap is smaller, 17-14. When Virginia is in a transition mode, it seems like Duke's defense can't keep up (and Singletary/Reynolds simply drive or shoot a 3). But when Duke forces UVA into a half-court, the Duke Defense tightens up considerably (like McBobs' blocks).
10:28 Paulus declares that the bank is indeed open, then Cain misses an easy dunk. HOO can't dunk? He can't dunk!
9:22 Henderson with a high-flying block, snuffing a transition opportunity by UVA after a Scheyer turnover.
8:59 Cain redeems himself, dunking over McRoberts. I appreciate that he's not trying to get into foul trouble, but he's gotta start asserting himself to stop the dribble penetration.
8:23 Oh good, a Sportscenter 30 at 30. Because I tune into ESPN just to watch a sports update every 30 minutes, rather than going online or to ESPN News. I really really hate it.
Third Media Break. Duke's increased the lead to 24-16, thanks to some good inside scoring by Duke and some poor judgment by UVA players on their offensive end. Something else happened right before the break, but I have no idea what, since the game was reduced to 1/4 of the screen. Thanks, WWL.
6:48 McRoberts steps up on a drive, finally. Thomas gets whistled for a foul on the rebound, his second. The replay shows no contact whatsoever. But Duke gets all the calls, right?
5:49 Reynolds called for a carry, stopping a 5 on 2 UVA advantage on a break. Duke needs to put UVA away or the Virginia running game is going to come back to bite the Blue Devils.
4:41 Nelson hits a floater in the lane to make it 30-19. This is what I'm talking about, slow it down, take a smart shot, own the paint with superior inside play.
2:33 Timeout Duke after a 3 from Diane following yet another dribble penetration and dish by Singletary.
2:10 McRoberts finishes down low, he might have taken a few too many steps.
1:27 Good burning of clock by Duke has an unfortunate finish- out of control turnover by Henderson.
1:03 "Tremendous acting job" (according to Mike Patrick) by Singletary. So, what you're saying is you're excited by cheating, Mike? Singletary hits both freebies.
37.1 Zoubek goes over the back, silly foul, could build momentum if Lars hits these. He hits one.
24.6 Lars picks up a foul 30 feet from the basket on McRoberts. I guess they had a foul to give, but still...
0:00 Henderson dribbles around a lot, puts up a long two and misses. A curious last possession.
Halftime thoughts: Duke limited Singletary and Reynolds to 5 of 14 shooting, and kept the pace down overall, just 31 possessions (Duke averages 65 possessions per game).
18:00. Diane hits another mid-range jumper. Virginia seems to be responding to the perimeter and paint defense with mid-range shots.
17:25 Singletary hits a layup to make it 38-35. Duke misses a layup and we have a game.
16:42 Thomas goes strong to the hoop for a 3-pt play opportunity. Lance sinks it, Duke's lead is back to 6, and Thomas goes back to the bench (he has 3 fouls).
Media Timeout: Not really sure how Duke can expect to defend the quickness of Singletary and Reynolds in the mid-range game. Instead they need to respond by sticking to their offensive game plan and limiting mistakes on that end. An efficient offense is a good defense in this case.
Duke Timeout, 12:46. Been kind of distracted the last few minutes, but Reynolds has scored a bunch more with pull-up jumpers, and Duke has been sloppy on offense. Coach K with his standard "Basketball. You guys are playing bas-ket-ball." Timeout.
12:12 Duke is still playing sloppy offense. Turnovers. No Offensive rebounds. Chaotic shot selection.
11:26 Reynolds adds an exclamation point trey to a well run half-court possession for UVA.
Media Timeout, 11:08 43-42 Duke.
10:30 Sweet, Carmelo Anthony wasn't selected to the NBA All-Star Team. Oh wait, I DON'T CARE. And I miss another possession because of it.
9:50 Quite the athletic rebound by Henderson, tossing it to Paulus falling out of bounds.
McBobs finishes on the ensuing possession with a pretty right jumphook.
8:25 Scheyer with a crazy tip in on Paulus' short shot with the clock winding. Paulus should have been shooting three, as he was knocked down. But Duke gets all the calls...
7:43 Cain traps McRoberts' arm between his and #2 gets whistled for the foul.
Media Timeout 49-46 Duke. Virginia hasn't lead since it was 6-4 but have been hanging around, and their ability to run could aid them if it stays close when it's late. Duke hasn't produced much excitement on the offensive end, with their matchup-zone giving Paulus some difficulty (though he's limited his turnovers).
7:14 Scheyer runs into a (clearly moving) screen by Cain, ends up under Reynolds's feet and gets called for a foul. Reynolds gets a chance to tie the game. And he does.
6:55 McRoberts answers, going strong to the hoop. We're in for a tight finish.
5:44 Scheyer knocks down a three on a pass by McRoberts. Singletary rushes a shot and Duke can slow it down with a six point lead.
4:57 Thomas fouls out, called for a moving pick. His feet didn't move, unlike Cain's knockdown of Scheyer two minutes earlier. But Duke gets all the calls...
4:29 Nelson hits a three-pointer as Reynolds writhes on the other end of the court. UVA fans are upset, but he's not part of the play, they shouldn't stop the clock.
4:11 McClure with a solid block of Diane, Paulus initiates the slow-down offense.
3:42 McRoberts hits a running floater with five on the shot clock, and will go to the line for the 3-pt play.
Media Timeout. The foul situation: with Thomas out, the next Blue Devil in danger is McRoberts, who has three. Mikalauskas (yeah, I had to look it up) also has three but he hasn't been playing much. Duke's now in the single bonus, and has a foul to give on the other end.
3:19 Reynolds hits off the glass, 59-53. Nelson turns the ball over and then fouls Reynolds.
2:58 Reynolds hits both to cut the lead to four. McRoberts fouled by Cain, who now has four personal fouls.
2:38 Nelson grabs a rebound and is tied up, possession arrow goes to Duke, and Paulus is still slowing it way down. UVA needs a stop, and Paulus loses it out of bounds right on cue.
Timeout UVA 61-55 Duke, 2:14 to go.
2:05 Reynolds hits two free throws, he has 23 points.
1:52 Paulus is body-checked by Singletary, no call, but Duke ball still.
1:34 Nelson can't throw it off Diane, UVA ball, 61-57 Duke.
1:15 McClure called for a blocking foul. By my replay, McClure's feet had been set for a good two seconds before Reynolds hit him. But Duke gets all the calls... Reynolds hits both, and its a one possession game.
Timeout UVA. ESPN replays all kinds of court-rushing upon beating Duke. I mean, it's an honor that upsetting the Blue Devils means so much, but in the end you've won a home game in the regular season. Yay? Paulus needs to control the ball in these last possesions. Duke needs to finish.
55.2 61-59 Duke, 15 on the Shot clock. I like the call by Coach K. Set em up. I say a set play for Scheyer from beyond the arc. It's a dagger type play that JJ and Duhon used to hit all the time.
41 Paulus shoots an off-balance runner that clanks off the rim.
24.8 Singletary hits a running jumper to tie the game. Duke can play for the last shot. McRoberts initiates with 8 seconds left. He misses a jumper with 3 seconds left. McClure has the ball knocked away but there isn't any call. Guess we're going to overtime.
Start of OT. Duke's got Nelson, McClure, McRoberts, Scheyer, and Paulus. I have the feeling this is Singletary's and Reynolds' game to lose. Singletary draws contact and goes to the line on the first possession. He hits both to put UVA up two.
4:24 Nelson misses a 3, McClure grabs the rebound. Paulus drives and gets to the free throw line. Cain fouls out with 6 points, 10 rebounds.
4:14 "Paulus Sucks" rains down as Greg hits both. Classy and creative fans, those Hoos. Reynolds comes off the court, limping. Tie game.
3:40 Diane scores a put-back layup. Can't let them have second chances.
3:22 Petinella pushes McRoberts in the back. The UVA crowd boos, predictably. Josh ties the game.
2:57 Thomas (?!?) fouls out (again?). Oh, ESPN just sucks, that's all. Petinella is 7 of 27 on the season. He bricks the first. I think I have better shooting form. Sinks the second, UVA up one.
2:42 Paulus' 25 footer rims out. Timeout UVA with 2:33 to go, up one.
2:08 Henderson with outstanding defense on Diane, and in the end forces the turnover. He drives on the other end and is fouled.
1:56 Henderson hits the first but misses the second. Rebound by Reynolds, boxing out the shooter. Tie Game.
1:31 Singletary with an airball three... fatigue, anyone?
1:14 McRoberts can't sink the shot over Lars.
1:00 Reynolds cramps up on a drive and McClure smacks it against the backboard.
30.2 Timeout Duke, 66-66 8 seconds on the shot clock. McRoberts still can't get to the hoop against Mikalauskas (that's "Lars" by the way). Reynolds is off the court again. Inbound to Scheyer, gets stuck in the corner and forces a 3 as the shot clock expires, UVA calls timeout at half-court with 17.0 seconds remaining, tie game. They can win it.
17.0 Both Virginia guards are in, but obviously fatigued. Inbound to Singletary in the back-court. Nelson on him. McRoberts switches onto him at the arc. He drives the lane and shoots a circus fade-away. It's in.
1.0 McRoberts will throw the ball in. They can only catch and shoot. He slides to his right and throws a bullet down court to Paulus, who gets the ball just a few feet from the arc. Paulus sidesteps Singletary and throws up a trey.... and it hits the back of the rim. And now there's fans on the court.
An excellent game on both ends. I don't mean to say with my "And Duke gets all the calls" comments that the refs handed Virginia this game. Both teams got their share of calls, and as usual for UVA, the difference was Singletary and Reynolds. While the mid-range jumper may be a lost art in most of college basketball, it was on fine display tonight in Charlottesville, and Duke had no answer. Final Score: UVA 68 Duke 66.
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