Since mehmattski has other obligations this weekend, I will be bringing you the Two-Second version of the Duke - Ga Tech Preview (1pm Eastern, CBS).
Keys to the game for Duke:
Rebounding - Boxing out and limiting second shots - Ga Tech does not have the best shooters, but they do have the athleticism to get the second shots and make them
Defensive Stinginess - no more easy layups for Ga Tech's superior athletes
Having a strong inside-out offensive game - Josh McRoberts had a breakout game against Boston College, and seems to be a much more confident and focused player as of late. If he starts strong offensively, Ga Tech may be forced to double him, which will allow him to use his superior vision and passing abilities to get open shots for Jon Scheyer, Demarcus Nelson, and Duke's other outside shooters. If they are able to convert the open 3-pointers, this game could get ugly for the Yellow Jackets.
No Stallball - if this is the case, Duke needs to keep the offense moving. This is not to say they should take shots early in the clock, but they should start a legitimate offensive set with 10 or 12 seconds on the clock so they have the opportunity to get themselves a high-percentage shot
Riding the emotion of the home crowd - Duke has lost two straight at home, and the fans are desperate for a win. If Duke can use this energy to get hot and allow the crowd to get in the heads of Georgia Tech's young players, this could easily turn into a blowout.
Having said all that, I envision Duke running out to an early lead and for once actually holding the margin behind the strong play of Josh McRoberts - who is finally beginning to realize some of his enormous potential - and the knock-down shooting of Jon Scheyer. Duke 73-58.
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Friday, February 16, 2007
More Team DYJS Stat Goodness coming soon
I just finished writing up a program to take the game logs straight off the retrosheet website and process them. I'll be passing the data off to mehmattski for analysis who should have some nice charts/graphs sometime over the next day or two.
The information used here was obtained free of
charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested
parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org".
charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested
parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org".
Thursday, February 15, 2007
The Stall-Ball Argument
Three different people messaged me during last night’s Duke-BC game to make the same complaint as the Blue Devils’ lead whittled: that “stall-ball” was killing the team. I eventually had to leave the DBR Chat for the same reason, because the reactionary fans there were making it unbearable. What I want to do here is have an open discussion about the general strategy of slowing down the offense with a big lead late in the game. First, the data, and my thoughts. I have compiled the following sequence from the play-by-play data of CBS and ESPN.
The critical stretch, then, is from 12:36 to 5:05, Duke scored 3 points, while BC scored 14. Unfortunately I did not record the game and so cannot go back and verify this, but I believe the only possessions in that stretch where Duke played “stall ball” were the first two. Henderson chucked up an awkward shot with the clock about to buzz; the next possession, McRoberts inexplicably passed to Nelson with two seconds left. In Duke’s next possession, they burned nearly a minute off the clock with two offensive rebounds. I distinctly remember there not being a “stalling” tactic, as Duke employed an old-school weave play at the top of the key. Unfortunately, one of McRoberts’ passes flew out of bounds, and the possession ended.
The next sequence I think is the best evidence that slowing the game down was a correct strategy. On the next trip down the court, Paulus made a 30-foot chest pass to Scheyer, who pulled up and took a wide open three, which clanked off the rim. Since eight of the ten players on the court were between the arcs, BC easily grabbed the rebound, made two outlet passes and Marshall hit a wide open 3 to cut the lead to 12.
Duke’s next scoring drought lasted three minutes, through four possessions. None of these possessions was particularly “stalling,” especially once Duke’s lead was cut to 8 with three minutes left. The offense was moving, and burned a lot of clock. However, those things that need to happen for a team to close out a game- making free throws, getting offensive rebounds- stopped happening, and BC pulled closer and closer.
So Duke’s “stall-ball” offense lasted all of three minutes when Duke had a lead that ranged from 22 to 12 points. Duke’s fast pace up to that point was the result of poor shooting and bad passing by Boston College. This also ceased in the final ten minutes, and so did Duke’s opportunity for a transition game. It is certainly frustrating to watch an offense slowing down and watching leads slip away. But imagine what could have happened had a suddenly hot-shooting BC team been able to have more possessions with which to score.
A football fan wouldn’t argue with his team burning the clock while up 10 points in the fourth quarter. More appropriately (in a game where possession is more fluid, like basketball) soccer fans would never argue against their team protecting a two-goal lead by passing around the back. An excellent basketball-coaching site describes the advantages of the delay offense, and points out its effectiveness against an opponent who sits back in a zone despite a big deficit. If anyone has the game tape from last night, I am willing to bet anything that BC was sitting in a 2-3 zone during the first two possessions on the list, and so holding a 22 point lead against a passive defense- delaying the game was absolutely the right call.
The critical stretch, then, is from 12:36 to 5:05, Duke scored 3 points, while BC scored 14. Unfortunately I did not record the game and so cannot go back and verify this, but I believe the only possessions in that stretch where Duke played “stall ball” were the first two. Henderson chucked up an awkward shot with the clock about to buzz; the next possession, McRoberts inexplicably passed to Nelson with two seconds left. In Duke’s next possession, they burned nearly a minute off the clock with two offensive rebounds. I distinctly remember there not being a “stalling” tactic, as Duke employed an old-school weave play at the top of the key. Unfortunately, one of McRoberts’ passes flew out of bounds, and the possession ended.
The next sequence I think is the best evidence that slowing the game down was a correct strategy. On the next trip down the court, Paulus made a 30-foot chest pass to Scheyer, who pulled up and took a wide open three, which clanked off the rim. Since eight of the ten players on the court were between the arcs, BC easily grabbed the rebound, made two outlet passes and Marshall hit a wide open 3 to cut the lead to 12.
Duke’s next scoring drought lasted three minutes, through four possessions. None of these possessions was particularly “stalling,” especially once Duke’s lead was cut to 8 with three minutes left. The offense was moving, and burned a lot of clock. However, those things that need to happen for a team to close out a game- making free throws, getting offensive rebounds- stopped happening, and BC pulled closer and closer.
So Duke’s “stall-ball” offense lasted all of three minutes when Duke had a lead that ranged from 22 to 12 points. Duke’s fast pace up to that point was the result of poor shooting and bad passing by Boston College. This also ceased in the final ten minutes, and so did Duke’s opportunity for a transition game. It is certainly frustrating to watch an offense slowing down and watching leads slip away. But imagine what could have happened had a suddenly hot-shooting BC team been able to have more possessions with which to score.
A football fan wouldn’t argue with his team burning the clock while up 10 points in the fourth quarter. More appropriately (in a game where possession is more fluid, like basketball) soccer fans would never argue against their team protecting a two-goal lead by passing around the back. An excellent basketball-coaching site describes the advantages of the delay offense, and points out its effectiveness against an opponent who sits back in a zone despite a big deficit. If anyone has the game tape from last night, I am willing to bet anything that BC was sitting in a 2-3 zone during the first two possessions on the list, and so holding a 22 point lead against a passive defense- delaying the game was absolutely the right call.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Duke at Boston College Preview
According to the mainstream sports media, everyone can now forget about Duke’s men’s basketball team. Four losses in a row for the first time since 95-96 must mean that this year’s team will miss the NCAA tournament, and that Duke will be an “easy win” for Boston College (9 PM, ESPN).
The comparison to the 1995-96 team is actually a fair one, if based not on team expectations but on actual game results. While this years’ team came with guarded optimism (and a #12 preseason ranking), the 95-96 team was coming off the worst Duke season in fifteen years, and the last time the Blue Devils missed March Madness in Coach K’s tenure. The team led by Jeff Capel and Chris Collins was ranked for just five weeks all season, and went though a stretch where they (stop me if you’ve heard this before) lost four straight ACC games by a combined score of 22. Flashing forward eleven years, the Blue Devils are coming off four straight ACC losses by a combined score of 21.
Statistically speaking, this is the worst Blue Devil offense since the 1996 version, with an offensive efficiency of just 107 points/100 possessions. However, they combine this with an extraordinary defense- which, despite the struggles in conference, still sits at a raw efficiency of 89 points/100 possessions, which is substantially better than any team since the 1992 championship team (DE: 91) and the 1993 Final Four team (DE: 90). With only one opponent that has a superior offensive team left on the schedule (UNC), there is a chance that this team is the best, defensively speaking, that Coach K has ever had. You can see the stats for yourself here.
That’s performance though, and in an excellent blog post recently, Ken Pomeroy talked about the false relationship of achievement and performance. Teams that win a lot tend to forget all the things that they do poorly (see: offensive rebounding and the 2006 Blue Devils), and teams that do poorly are likely to lose focus in the areas in which they have superior achievement. It is crucial for tonight’s game that Duke remember its strengths, particularly the strength of its rebounding. In the first meeting in Cameron, both teams grabbed an extraordinary number of offensive rebounds: Duke’s 54.5% offensive rebounding rate was the highest of the season, and its 59.6% defensive rebounding rate was the lowest of the season. While the Duke game was a season low-point for BC’s defensive rebounding, its own offensive rebounding (that is, 40.4%) was a simply average performance.
What this should suggest, given the nature of statistics to tend towards the mean, is that a more average effort on both boards should be expected from Duke tonight. More crucial to Duke, believe it or not, is grabbing defensive rebounds. Duke’s offensive efficiency is more highly correlated with its defensive rebounding than its offensive rebounding.
Duke failing to rebound as many of its misses as in the first match-up should lead to one obvious effect: a quicker pace. This would seem to favor Boston College, since Duke’s games have shown a much slower pace. However, pace does not seem to accurately predict the efficiency of Duke’s offense this season. Efficiency, however, has clearly dictated wins and losses for Duke. Regardless of the tempo of the game tonight, Duke needs to execute, avoiding turnovers (this has been better since the VT game) and avoiding bad shot selection (a plaguing problem since the first BC game).
The individual match-ups of players will continue to favor Duke if Demarcus Nelson can find the rhythm he has been missing the past four games. According to the “points per possession played” metric measured at dbdhoops (kind of a plus/minus for basketball), Nelson has made the offense and the defense worse in the past four games. However, Duke probably cannot survive with Nelson on the bench tonight, as his containment of Sean Marshal (1 for 8 from the field), was critical to Duke’s home victory. Further, if Josh McRoberts continues his mission to be more assertive on offense (seen in the second halves of both the UNC and Maryland games), Duke’s offense should improve enough for the Blue Devils to win. It will be a close game, but BC’s “SuperFans” won’t be rushing the court- not because of the suggestion by a jackass reporter, but because Duke will be victorious. Duke, 75-65.
The comparison to the 1995-96 team is actually a fair one, if based not on team expectations but on actual game results. While this years’ team came with guarded optimism (and a #12 preseason ranking), the 95-96 team was coming off the worst Duke season in fifteen years, and the last time the Blue Devils missed March Madness in Coach K’s tenure. The team led by Jeff Capel and Chris Collins was ranked for just five weeks all season, and went though a stretch where they (stop me if you’ve heard this before) lost four straight ACC games by a combined score of 22. Flashing forward eleven years, the Blue Devils are coming off four straight ACC losses by a combined score of 21.
Statistically speaking, this is the worst Blue Devil offense since the 1996 version, with an offensive efficiency of just 107 points/100 possessions. However, they combine this with an extraordinary defense- which, despite the struggles in conference, still sits at a raw efficiency of 89 points/100 possessions, which is substantially better than any team since the 1992 championship team (DE: 91) and the 1993 Final Four team (DE: 90). With only one opponent that has a superior offensive team left on the schedule (UNC), there is a chance that this team is the best, defensively speaking, that Coach K has ever had. You can see the stats for yourself here.
That’s performance though, and in an excellent blog post recently, Ken Pomeroy talked about the false relationship of achievement and performance. Teams that win a lot tend to forget all the things that they do poorly (see: offensive rebounding and the 2006 Blue Devils), and teams that do poorly are likely to lose focus in the areas in which they have superior achievement. It is crucial for tonight’s game that Duke remember its strengths, particularly the strength of its rebounding. In the first meeting in Cameron, both teams grabbed an extraordinary number of offensive rebounds: Duke’s 54.5% offensive rebounding rate was the highest of the season, and its 59.6% defensive rebounding rate was the lowest of the season. While the Duke game was a season low-point for BC’s defensive rebounding, its own offensive rebounding (that is, 40.4%) was a simply average performance.
What this should suggest, given the nature of statistics to tend towards the mean, is that a more average effort on both boards should be expected from Duke tonight. More crucial to Duke, believe it or not, is grabbing defensive rebounds. Duke’s offensive efficiency is more highly correlated with its defensive rebounding than its offensive rebounding.
Duke failing to rebound as many of its misses as in the first match-up should lead to one obvious effect: a quicker pace. This would seem to favor Boston College, since Duke’s games have shown a much slower pace. However, pace does not seem to accurately predict the efficiency of Duke’s offense this season. Efficiency, however, has clearly dictated wins and losses for Duke. Regardless of the tempo of the game tonight, Duke needs to execute, avoiding turnovers (this has been better since the VT game) and avoiding bad shot selection (a plaguing problem since the first BC game).
The individual match-ups of players will continue to favor Duke if Demarcus Nelson can find the rhythm he has been missing the past four games. According to the “points per possession played” metric measured at dbdhoops (kind of a plus/minus for basketball), Nelson has made the offense and the defense worse in the past four games. However, Duke probably cannot survive with Nelson on the bench tonight, as his containment of Sean Marshal (1 for 8 from the field), was critical to Duke’s home victory. Further, if Josh McRoberts continues his mission to be more assertive on offense (seen in the second halves of both the UNC and Maryland games), Duke’s offense should improve enough for the Blue Devils to win. It will be a close game, but BC’s “SuperFans” won’t be rushing the court- not because of the suggestion by a jackass reporter, but because Duke will be victorious. Duke, 75-65.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Pitchers and Catchers Report Today!
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what
I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~Rogers Hornsby
Maybe it won’t make much sense to people who live below the Mason-Dixon line; it certainly won’t make sense to people who aren’t rabid fans of baseball. But there is something in the middle of February that picks people up, revives them from the mid-winter depression and puts color into cold faces. Forget Valentine’s Day, because for the true seam-head, this day has been circled on the calendar since late October. Some fans put it in the back of their minds for a while, but as football season grinds to a close, the pull of this date gets stronger and stronger.
“Pitchers and Catchers report today!” The words roll off the tongue with a kick of hope at the end. In the northeast, there can be entire Februaries when the sun does not shine at all, with freezing temperatures and blanketing snow, making springtime seem centuries away. But that’s not true once Pitchers and Catchers report. Even though it’s still frigid and there’s still ten feet of snow on the ground, it now feels like baseball season. And baseball season means green grass, means blue sky, means warm sun. It means springtime.
Those who do not understand will point out that baseball season is still a long way off- that the whole team will not be working out for another week, that spring training games don’t start for three weeks. Sure, opening day is 45 days away, but that doesn’t matter. “Pitchers and Catchers report today!” says the hopeful fan, regardless of the team and its prospects for the season; it isn’t really the team that gets fans excited about this day. It’s the idea of baseball. It’s about how soon it will be to hear the crack of the bat, the pop of the catcher’s mitt, the woosh of a sliding player trying to avoid a tag.
For just a moment, none of the stats, the salaries, the fan loyalties are important. Briefly, seen through the simplicity of a date on a calendar, fans remember that baseball is just a game. A wonderful, beautiful, poetic game.
“Pitchers and Catchers report today!”
And that makes me smile.
PCOW(NSBP) Award
Nobody truly stood out this week for the inaugural Publix Cookie, but there were some decent candidates none the less. Lets run through the candidates.
Phil Mickelson - He won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but there was a certain Greatest Golfer ever who sat this one out. While this would certainly qualify him for the sarcastic end of the award(Hey, great going Phil, way to win a non-major tournament when Tiger Woods isn't playing) it's not enough to separate him from the rest.
Maryland - Yes, they exposed Duke, but who hasn't these days. When you expose a team, you're showing that they aren't as good as they should be. This would be more impressive if they played a better Duke team.
The goalie who played for my Indoor League last night - This was absolutely the sickest goalie I've ever played with. We won 10-1 and I watched in awe as he robbed goal after goal. Unfortunately, only I and Agent Swag actually saw this happen. Giving the inaugural award to an unknown is not a good way to jump-start relevance.
This leaves us with mehmattski's nominee of Sean Taylor, whose hit you can see here. I think that Sean Taylor's hit is a great representation of what the Publix Cookie Award(no affiliation with Publix) is all about. Lets break it down.
Why it's impressive:
That's a ridiculous hit in a slow sports week. Also, punters getting hit always makes for a good time.
Why it's not:
The Pro Bowl is the most meaningless game in all of sports and I haven't looked at the ratings, but I'd estimate that 6 people watched this game. This was Sean Taylor's first game in awhile....because his team went 5-11. While destroying the punter(or kicker) is hilarious, it's the damn punter and you should be able to hit him hard when he has the ball. Compare Taylor's hit to Sheldon Brown's hit on Reggie Bush in the playoffs. Here's a harder hit, against a real player in a game that matters.
Taylor had a nasty hit, in a meaningless game, after a terrible season, against a punter. It is for these reasons that I am proud to say, Nice hit Sean, here's a cookie.
Phil Mickelson - He won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but there was a certain Greatest Golfer ever who sat this one out. While this would certainly qualify him for the sarcastic end of the award(Hey, great going Phil, way to win a non-major tournament when Tiger Woods isn't playing) it's not enough to separate him from the rest.
Maryland - Yes, they exposed Duke, but who hasn't these days. When you expose a team, you're showing that they aren't as good as they should be. This would be more impressive if they played a better Duke team.
The goalie who played for my Indoor League last night - This was absolutely the sickest goalie I've ever played with. We won 10-1 and I watched in awe as he robbed goal after goal. Unfortunately, only I and Agent Swag actually saw this happen. Giving the inaugural award to an unknown is not a good way to jump-start relevance.
This leaves us with mehmattski's nominee of Sean Taylor, whose hit you can see here. I think that Sean Taylor's hit is a great representation of what the Publix Cookie Award(no affiliation with Publix) is all about. Lets break it down.
Why it's impressive:
That's a ridiculous hit in a slow sports week. Also, punters getting hit always makes for a good time.
Why it's not:
The Pro Bowl is the most meaningless game in all of sports and I haven't looked at the ratings, but I'd estimate that 6 people watched this game. This was Sean Taylor's first game in awhile....because his team went 5-11. While destroying the punter(or kicker) is hilarious, it's the damn punter and you should be able to hit him hard when he has the ball. Compare Taylor's hit to Sheldon Brown's hit on Reggie Bush in the playoffs. Here's a harder hit, against a real player in a game that matters.
Taylor had a nasty hit, in a meaningless game, after a terrible season, against a punter. It is for these reasons that I am proud to say, Nice hit Sean, here's a cookie.
The Gilbert Arenas Swag Award
The Gilbert Arenas Swag Award will go to anyone who produces an outstanding quote in the world of sports. Not surprisingly, it will usually be awarded to Agent Zero himself. However, we are going to start out with this gem by Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs...
Congratulations to Mr. Zambrano, and I hope he enjoys his new contract with the Yankees after the season.
"I want to sign with the Cubs before the season starts," the Cubs' pitching ace said in an interview on WGN-TV, according to the Chicago Tribune. "If they don't sign me, sorry, but I must go. That's what Carlos Zambrano thinks."
Congratulations to Mr. Zambrano, and I hope he enjoys his new contract with the Yankees after the season.
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